In a recent report from the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida, an alarming revelation sheds light on a complex arrangement involving Iran, Russia, Hezbollah, and Arab tribes in Syria. This intricate deal, described as a four-way agreement, not only poses a threat to the stability of Syria but also raises concerns for Israel and Ukraine. The core of the report revolves around Iran’s plan to transfer weapons from Hezbollah to Syrian regime-backed Arab tribes and, intriguingly, to Moscow.
Historically, Iran has used Syria as a conduit to supply weapons to Hezbollah. During the Syrian civil war, this dynamic shifted as Hezbollah intervened to support the Syrian regime, a move that Iran actively encouraged. As the Syrian regime, with the assistance of Hezbollah, defeated rebel forces, both entities entrenched themselves in Syrian territories, expanding Iran’s trading axis in the region.
The recent report suggests a new turn in this relationship. Iran and Russia are allegedly collaborating to facilitate the movement of weapons from Hezbollah to Arab tribes in Syria and even to Russia. While seemingly counterintuitive, this strategy benefits Hezbollah by allowing it to dispose of older munitions, making space for the acquisition of the latest weaponry. Furthermore, it earns Hezbollah favor with Moscow, simultaneously aiding Russia in its conflict with Ukraine and threatening U.S. interests in Syria.
A significant aspect of this deal is its potential impact on the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a U.S.-backed entity in eastern Syria. Arab tribes, armed with the supplied weapons, could challenge the SDF, serving the interests of Iran, Turkey, and Russia in the region. The deal also aims to create a balance of power, with Hezbollah receiving advanced weapons to counter Israel effectively.
The collaboration between these parties represents a departure from previous dynamics. Reports had previously hinted at Russia’s desire to minimize Iran’s role in Syria. However, the recent development suggests a reversal, wherein Iran’s influence in Syria might be on the rise, unsettling the existing balance of power.
This complex alliance poses significant challenges to regional stability. With the Syrian regime openly discussing a shift in the global power balance favoring the Iran-Russia coalition, the implications of this deal could extend far beyond the immediate region. As these players maneuver geopolitically, the international community watches with apprehension, acknowledging the potential consequences of this newfound alliance on the fragile Middle Eastern landscape.