In his heavily fortified office, Vladimir Putin might soon regret that the entire world is convinced he orchestrated the death of rebel mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. The Kremlin operates like a mafia, resembling a gang that lines Putin’s and his associates’ pockets. However, Putin’s strategies may backfire, much like the Japanese’s experience in Burma during 1944, realizing that waging a terror-fueled war can falter against a well-organized, motivated, and ethical force, such as General ‘Bill’ Slim’s ‘Forgotten Army.’
Putin could unknowingly have set his own demise in motion. Though he might not have physically triggered Prigozhin’s plane crash or administered the Polonium or Novichok poisoning against opponents, his fingerprints are all over the directives. Presently, two potent forces threaten him: beyond the International Criminal Court, which likely possesses an abundance of evidence to imprison him indefinitely if he reaches The Hague.
Primarily, Putin faces concern from his oligarchs, who have remained sequestered in Moscow’s dachas for over 18 months. Deprived of their luxurious superyachts and Mediterranean villas, they may eventually recognize that their best escape from a Russia that has suffered economic and social diminishment lies in removing Putin.
Secondly, despite the loss of their reckless leader and his second-in-command, the Wagner Group persists as a formidable assembly of thugs and assassins. While Prigozhin lacked military expertise, the Wagner Group represents Russia’s most successful military entity, despite being composed largely of paid mercenaries, including many recruited from Russian penitentiaries. Managing such a faction necessitates resolute leaders, now contemplating future moves in Belarus and Africa. Irony may unfold if these men receive lucrative incentives to unleash chaos within Russia; mercenaries seldom question the origins of their funding.
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It’s not likely coincidental that the removal of ‘General Armageddon’ Sergei Surovikin was announced alongside Prigozhin’s elimination. Putin has discarded his most capable military commanders, leaving desk-bound figures like Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov to oversee operations in Ukraine and Moscow’s defense. These men boast medal-covered chests, but their commendations pertain to non-combat achievements, unlike Surovikin’s and Prigozhin’s. A poorly led army tends to disintegrate, and Putin’s actions have seemingly generated just that.
Anticipate an inundation of ‘kompromat’ in the coming days, gathered by the late Yevgeny Vitorovich, likely revealing damning information about Putin’s oppressive regime upon his demise. This could further burden the besieged Kremlin.
In the sobering aftermath, as Muscovites repeatedly seek shelter from Ukrainian drones and face the reality of their youth returning home lifeless, not triumphant, they may grasp the catastrophe of Putin’s ‘special military operation.’ The downfall of Putin could emerge from the oligarchs and Wagner, rather than him ravaging the Russian state entirely.
What ensues cannot be more dreadful; the past 18 months have illustrated utter turmoil. Nevertheless, the next Russian leader will inherit a weakened army and a dearth of competent generals for a generation.
While chaos might intensify before improving, following the losses of Surovikin and Prigozhin, Putin’s demise appears imminent, requiring just a few more symbolic nails in his political coffin.
