The 2023 NFL season brought high hopes for several teams, including the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, and Jets, who all aspired to reach the Super Bowl. However, reality didn’t quite align with their aspirations, with three of these teams suffering losses, two of which were significant blowouts. But, surprisingly, none saw a more dramatic drop in their Super Bowl and playoff odds than the New York Jets.
Before the season began, the Jets were considered one of the projected wild-card teams, according to Sporting News’ projection model, with a 3.7 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. However, an unfortunate injury to their star quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, caused the Jets’ playoff odds to plummet from 59.7 percent before Week 1 to just 36.5 percent heading into Week 2. As for their Super Bowl odds, they plummeted to a mere 1.1 percent, placing them ninth in the AFC.
NFL Week 2 Showdowns
Sporting News employs a model that projects each NFL game 10,000 times to determine win probabilities, adjusting its calculations as it learns more about each team and their quarterbacks. When Rodgers was replaced by Zach Wilson, the model penalized the Jets significantly, giving less weight to their narrow win over the Bills.
For each game, the model provides its projected spread and win probability, offering updated playoff and Super Bowl odds based on its calculations. It’s important to note that these odds are generated by the model and do not rely on bookmakers’ input.
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Now, let’s take a look at how the model predicts the second week of the NFL season:
Eagles (-6) vs. Vikings
Win Probability: 70.5% for Eagles
Despite a shaky start on the road in New England, the model still considers the Eagles a formidable team, especially when facing the struggling Vikings.
Packers (-1) vs. Falcons
Win Probability: 53.1% for Packers
The model has slightly warmed up to the Packers, who have shown promise in the early stages of the Jordan Love era. It expects a close contest against the Falcons.
Bills (-9) vs. Raiders
Win Probability: 77.8% for Bills
Despite their loss to the Jets, the Bills remain a dominant force in the AFC, and the model is not high on the Raiders, making this game heavily favor Buffalo.
Bengals (-3) vs. Ravens
Win Probability: 61.1% for Bengals
While the Bengals struggled in their season opener, they still hold an edge over the Ravens, who are dealing with injuries. The model factors in Cincinnati’s home-field advantage.
Lions (-5) vs. Seahawks
Win Probability: 67.4% for Lions
The Lions have been a surprise this season, and the model sees them as comfortable favorites against the struggling Seahawks.
Texans (-1) vs. Colts
Win Probability: 54.9% for Texans
Although neither team is expected to make the playoffs, this rookie QB showdown leans slightly in favor of the Texans, especially with home-field advantage.
Chiefs (-3) vs. Jaguars
Win Probability: 61% for Chiefs
Despite their home-opener loss, the Chiefs are favored to win against the Jaguars, who are led by star quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
Chargers (-2) vs. Titans
Win Probability: 55.7% for Chargers
The Chargers face the Titans after a tough loss but are expected to bounce back against a Titans team that struggled offensively.
Bears (-1) vs. Buccaneers
Win Probability: 52.9% for Bears
The model disagrees with bookmakers, favoring the Bears to rebound with Justin Fields at the helm, even though they had a rough start.
Giants (-8) vs. Cardinals
Win Probability: 75.7% for Giants
Despite their tough loss to the Cowboys, the model predicts a comfortable win for the Giants against the struggling Cardinals.
49ers (-5) vs. Rams
Win Probability: 66.7% for 49ers
The Rams, despite their Week 1 surprise, face a formidable 49ers team that has risen in the model’s Super Bowl rankings.
Cowboys (-5) vs. Jets
Win Probability: 68.8% for Cowboys
Without Aaron Rodgers, the Jets face an uphill battle against the Cowboys, who impressed in their opening game.
Broncos (-4) vs. Commanders
Win Probability: 62.7% for Broncos
Despite a slow start, the model expects the Broncos to come out on top against the Commanders, who narrowly won their previous game.
Dolphins (-1) vs. Patriots
Win Probability: 54.8% for Dolphins
The model finds the Dolphins slightly favored over the Patriots in what could be an intriguing matchup.
Saints (-1) vs. Panthers
Win Probability: 52.3% for Saints
The Saints, once a model favorite, face skepticism after a so-so performance, but they are still expected to have a slight edge over the Panthers.
Browns (-2) vs. Steelers
Win Probability: 57.1% for Browns
The Browns enter this AFC North showdown as favorites, following their impressive victory over the Bengals and the Steelers’ blowout loss.
Updated NFL projections 2023
AFC East
Team
xW-L
Division win%
Wild card%
Playoff%
No. 1 seed%
Conference champion%
Super Bowl champion%
Bills
10-7
48.1%
22.8%
70.9%
11.5%
14.3%
7.5%
Dolphins
9-8
30.2%
23.8%
54%
5.9%
4.9%
2.4%
Jets
8-9
16%
20.5%
36.5%
2.4%
2.1%
1.1%
Patriots
7-10
5.8%
8.5%
14.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
AFC North
Team
xW-L
Division win%
Wild card%
Playoff%
No. 1 seed%
Conference champion%
Super Bowl champion%
Bengals
11-6
41.2%
34.8%
76%
16.3%
18.4%
10.8%
Ravens
10-7
29.1%
35.3%
64.4%
10.3%
8.4%
4%
Browns
10-7
22.5%
33.9%
56.4%
8.1%
5.4%
2.6%
Steelers
8-9
7.2%
19.2%
26.4%
1.6%
1.7%
0.9%
AFC South
Team
xW-L
Division win%
Wild card%
Playoff%
No. 1 seed%
Conference champion%
Super Bowl champion%
Jaguars
10-7
63.6%
9.6%
73.2%
11%
7.9%
3.9%
Titans
8-9
24.2%
12.8%
37%
2.1%
1.8%
0.7%
Colts
6-11
6%
4.6%
10.6%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
Texans
6-11
6.2%
3.7%
9.9%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
AFC West
Team
xW-L
Division win%
Wild card%
Playoff%
No. 1 seed%
Conference champion%
Super Bowl champion%
Chiefs
11-6
68.9%
16.3%
85.2%
25.3%
27.3%
14.4%
Chargers
9-8
16.8%
25.2%
42%
3%
4.6%
2.1%
Raiders
8-9
9.2%
18.2%
27.4%
1.4%
1.4%
0.6%
Broncos
7-10
5.2%
10.8%
16%
0.5%
1%
0.5%
NFC East
Team
xW-L
Division win%
Wild card%
Playoff%
No. 1 seed%
Conference champion%
Super Bowl champion%
Eagles
11-6
50.5%
34.1%
84.6%
18.9%
20.9%
9.9%
Cowboys
11-6
40.7%
37.6%
78.3%
15%
15.3%
7%
Giants
8-9
6.5%
21.1%
27.6%
1.1%
1.8%
0.7%
Commanders
6-11
2.3%
10.4%
12.7%
0.3%
0.4%
0.1%
NFC North
Team
xW-L
Division win%
Wild card%
Playoff%
No. 1 seed%
Conference champion%
Super Bowl champion%
Lions
11-6
57.7%
18.3%
76%
11.5%
10.2%
4.9%
Packers
8-9
17.8%
20.2%
38%
2%
1.9%
0.7%
Vikings
8-9
16.4%
18.9%
35.3%
1.5%
2.9%
1.4%
Bears
7-10
8.2%
11.9%
20.1%
0.5%
0.6%
0.3%
NFC South
Team
xW-L
Division win%
Wild card%
Playoff%
No. 1 seed%
Conference champion%
Super Bowl champion%
Saints
11-6
61.3%
18.5%
79.8%
13.2%
10%
4.6%
Falcons
9-8
26.2%
26.2%
52.4%
3.7%
2.3%
1.1%
Panthers
7-10
8.9%
14.7%
23.6%
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
Buccaneers
6-11
3.6%
6.5%
10.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
NFC West
Team
xW-L
Division win%
Wild card%
Playoff%
No. 1 seed%
Conference champion%
Super Bowl champion%
49ers
12-5
77.9%
12.9%
90.8%
28.3%
28.2%
14.8%
Seahawks
8-9
11.4%
24%
35.4%
1.6%
2.9%
1.3%
Rams
8-9
10.4%
24%
34.4%
1.6%
1.7%
0.7%
Cardinals
4-13
0.2%
0.8%
1%
0%
0%
0%
These predictions provide a snapshot of the model’s current assessments for Week 2. However, as the season progresses and teams evolve, these probabilities may change accordingly. Below, you can find updated NFL projections for the 2023 season for each division, including win percentages, playoff odds, and Super Bowl chances. These projections offer insight into the model’s expectations for the season’s outcomes.
