A tropical storm brewing in the Atlantic Ocean has caught the attention of the National Hurricane Center, as it has the potential to develop into a hurricane. This storm, known as Tropical Storm Margot, is currently positioned in the mid-Atlantic region and is anticipated to upgrade to hurricane status later tonight, as stated in a National Hurricane Center advisory issued on September 11.
As of 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), Tropical Storm Margot was pinpointed at latitude 25.3 North and longitude 40.0 West. It is gradually heading north at a rate of approximately 8 mph (13 km/h), and this northward trajectory is expected to persist in the coming days. Notably, Margot is situated hundreds of miles away from the U.S. coastline.
According to the advisory, Margot is on the cusp of intensifying over the next 48 hours, with the likelihood of it becoming a hurricane tonight. Presently, its winds are clocking in at around 65 mph, extending roughly 90 miles from the storm’s center. Model projections suggest that it will gain strength as it continues its northward journey.
Tropical storms originate from areas of low pressure forming over warm tropical ocean waters, causing air to rise. This ascent of moist and swiftly rising air can lead to the formation of clusters of thunderstorms, which then acquire rotation due to the Earth’s spin. Depending on factors such as sea surface temperatures and humidity levels, a tropical storm may evolve from this initial stage.
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The transition from a tropical storm to a hurricane occurs when wind speeds reach or exceed 74 mph, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Sam Lillo, a forecast engineer at DTN Weather, explained, “One of the primary factors influencing a storm’s intensity is the temperature of the ocean water beneath it. Wind blowing over the water causes moisture to be released into the atmosphere, fostering the growth of deep clouds and enhancing low-pressure systems at the surface. This, in turn, strengthens the winds, creating a feedback loop. Warmer water supplies more moisture and heat, fueling the storm and intensifying this feedback process.”
As a storm gains power and velocity, it can escalate from a category 1 hurricane to more severe categories, such as category 2, 3, 4, or even category 5, which signifies extreme wind speeds.
Ultimately, when these formidable storms make landfall, they can unleash widespread flooding, destruction of property, and pose significant risks to human life, as witnessed during the recent events of Hurricane Idalia and Tropical Storm Hilaryearlier in the year.
Lillo emphasized that the storm’s path is influenced by the environmental winds guiding its course. Variations in these winds over short distances can introduce uncertainty into the storm’s trajectory. Additionally, newly formed and weak storms may exhibit erratic movements, further complicating forecasts. This is why tools like spaghetti model plots are invaluable, providing a range of potential outcomes and highlighting forecast uncertainty.
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Fortunately, in the case of Storm Margot, it appears to be veering away from the U.S. and other landmasses, opting for a northward trajectory through the Atlantic. There’s hope that it may weaken and not pose significant threats to the Eastern Seaboard. Meanwhile, Hurricane Lee is making its way toward the U.S., serving as a reminder that the Atlantic hurricane season typically spans from June 1 to November 30, potentially ushering in more hurricanes in the months ahead.
The specter of climate change looms large, as it is expected to intensify hurricanes and amplify the destruction they wreak upon landfall. Mathew Barlow, a professor of environmental earth and atmospheric sciences, noted, “Climate change is undeniably elevating the upper limits of hurricane strength and precipitation rates due to rising ocean temperatures, which provide the energy for these storms, and increasing atmospheric temperatures, which facilitate more intense rainfall. Furthermore, global warming leads to higher average sea levels, exacerbating storm surges. While some aspects remain uncertain, such as the total number of hurricanes in a given year, we anticipate a higher proportion of major storms in the future.”
